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mrschroeder08 partyvancaptain pee_callus25 Tags 2010 Preview 5 Million Dollar Black Hole AAAA Aaron Heilman Aaron Miles Alfonso Soriano Andres Blanco Angel Guzman Aramis Ramirez Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves B.J. 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Alright, I could be tons more psyched coming into 2010, but I do think the Cubs have a better shot than many are giving them. I think Soriano still has a little more left in the tank, maybe not five years worth, but some. I also think Soto and Zambrano will return to a better form this year. Obviously there are too many questions, especially revolving around pitching, to feel very confident. This should be a fun, if not up-and-down, year. With that said, I did not comment on a few of the acquisitions made by this team in 2010 (and New Years' Eve 2009). So I will do that now: 1) Marlon Byrd. For what was available, this was an OK signing. I do think it is a year too long and a couple million too much, but when we are dealing with the size of payroll the Cubs have, that is nitpicking. The key with Byrd is to temper expectations. He will be an adequate everyday center fielder. To expect more is setting yourself up for disappointment. Like I said before, there were not many in house candidates, although I do like the weight Tyler Colvin has put on. 2) Xavier Nady. I am iffy on this, and wonder if a Jonny Gomes would have been a safer route. It is coming out that Nady will not be available for full time work until June. Which of course begs the question, is 4 months of an outfielder coming off Tommy John worth 3.3 million. Of course, he was signed to be a platoon player, so this hardly makes or breaks the team. If he comes back and is his old self, he will be a solid contributor. Still, I worry he may not be his old self. If nothing else, Nady was a Cubs killer, so at least the Cubs won't have to face him. 3) Chad Tracy. I like this one. It is very low risk and low price for a left handed stick, who has proven he can hit, and can backup third and first. He is actually younger (by a couple of months) than Micah Hoffpauir, but has a track record of success, including a 27 home run, .911 OPS 2005 season. Granted, that is five years ago, and injuries have slowed him to a point where he was only able to get a minor league deal. The thing is: he is versatile, somewhat proven and not exactly old by baseball standards. The question this Spring for Tracy is whether he can regain some of that 2005-2006 form, or if 2009 has indeed shown that Chad Tracy is done. If it's the latter, the Cubs don't set themselves back at all, and if it's the former, they made a great find. I am rooting for the former. 4) Kevin Millar. Heh, heh. Again, low risk, so I cannot say it was a bad signing. On the contrary, any minor league deal has the chance of helping (albeit remote). There are differences between Millar and Tracy though that make me a bit less optimistic about this deal paying off. Namely he is 38, so his decline is likely to continue, while Tracy is 29 (30 in May). Also he is right handed. And while that is not the be all end all, I think that gives Tracy an added dimension that Miller cannot bring. I will say this though, Miller is clearly a fun guy. He was the emotional motor behind the 2004 Red Sox team. I don't know if that is worth a roster spot, but if he can earn it this Spring, great! Bottom line is out of Hoffpauir, Millar and Tracy, I only see one making it. Overall, these four signings are not going to put this team over the top. In fact, only three will probably be with the team in Atlanta on Opening Day... maybe even only two. Obviously, once again, and this is not any breaking news: the key to this season are the players who vastly underachieved in 2009. If they continue to underachieve, than even Kevin Millar and Chad Tracy will not be able to salvage 2010. Posted in: Offseason, Marlon Byrd, Xavier Nady, Chad Tracy, Kevin Millar In 2007-08, it was Brian Roberts. In 2008-09, Jake Peavy was the name. Could the hot rumor of the 2009-10 Cubs offseason be Curtis Granderson? The Detroit Tigers are looking to shed payroll, and Granderson, a Chicago native, could be one of the players leaving. Granderson had an off year last season and has 3 years at $25.75 million left on his deal. The Angels and Yankees are rumored to be interested in the 28-year-old as well. I've read some opine that Granderson would be simply a left-handed Soriano. That is an extremely narrow view of him. First of all, to compare Soriano and Granderson defensively is to compare night and day. Granderson has shown a ton of range in a spacious center field in Comerica park. Not to mention the added benefit of moving Fukudome back to right, where he is an above-average defender. Second, the Granderson's WARP, even in a down year, was at 3.4. Fangraphs computes him to have been worth $15.2 million, which makes his salary a bargain (still). Why is this? Though Granderson's OBP was just below league average, he still showed tons of power in a big park. His OPS+ ultimately ended up about average, but he did not have the lopsided K/BB rate of Soriano, nor did he have the minus-minus-defense. Ultimately, if the Cubs were somehow able to pull this off, I think it would be great. He is just entering his prime years, so his physical abilities could still be reaching their full potential. Defensively alone, he would be a tremendous pickup. And at Wrigley Field, he could really do some damage with the bat. I mean, come on, 30 HRs with 81 games at Comerica. The one issue, pointed out by Keith Law, is that Curtis Granderson is pretty much an Aaron Miles against left handed pitching, OPSing a putrid .484. With Fukudome also having trouble against southpaws, a trade like this would suddenly increase the need for a right handed outfielder, maybe two. That would probably mean a return for Reed Johnson. There are definitely hidden costs to this trade. Ultimately, I do not think the Cubs have the resources, be they financially or in the farm system, to pull this off. If by some off chance, they do, I really hope Jim Hendry looks past Granderson's high strikeout totals (which should not be a factor) and can pull this off. The much greater chance is a free agent pickup. I had originally predicted Mike Cameron, but it looks like Marlon Byrd might be the man. To that I say "meh", he is an alright hitter. His K/BB was not impressive last season, but he did hit for much more power. In 2008, he had a great OBP, but not as much power. If he could put it together, then I would think this is a steal. And who knows, maybe Rudy Jaramillo (his former hitting coach) is the guy to help him do just that. Ultimately, the Cubs could do worse. But even though they are probably a pipe dream, these Granderson rumors make me wonder if they could do much, much better. (Stats from baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com) Posted in: Curtis Granderson, Marlon Byrd, Offseason Boy howdy, the Yankees have done it against all odds. What a classic underdog story, what with the NINE year drought they were suffering through prior to the 4-2 series victory over the previous champion Philadelphia Phillies. Now if only we could get the Cubs to spend money. Speaking of money, the Ricketts family has spent a lot of it in acquiring our beloved team, and last week, the family said pretty much all the right things. That is if you strike out the awkward comment Todd made about Jim Hendry asking the team to eat money on contracts in trades (*cough*Bradley*cough*). Anyways, the main point that was made was that payroll is not an issue with the Cubs (bingo). Spending is not an issue (bingo). The big issue here is how money is spent. And this isn't just Jim Hendry spending like a drunken sailor. This is the scouting and development constantly failing to develop quality talent. This is the state of the facilities, both in Mesa and at Wrigley. For being one of the premier brands in baseball, the Cubs have a lot of catching up to do as far as being one of the better organizations in baseball. That is why I think Tom Ricketts is attacking this from the right angle. He cannot just raise payroll, because you can bet that money will at best provide a very short-term fix. At the root of all the Cubs problems, in my eyes, is the farm system. Think about the position prospects this system has churned out. It is pretty poor for a team that has the resources that the Cubs have. The lack of quality home-grown talent has lead to the bad contracts that have strangled this team. Ideally the Cubs will have a healthy payroll. Even with that payroll, they will have a solid core of young players, many of whom are under team control and are cheaper than a similar player found on the free agent market. This frees up a ton of payroll which can then be used to plug holes. That is essentially the Boston Red Sox, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Phillies for you. Anyways, I feel like I've made this diatribe before, so I will move on from that point to talk about this offseason. Let's start with the farm system's role in this offseason. Starlin Castro is the new hot prospect on the block. This guy is on the fast-track supposedly, with some saying he could be up in 2010. He is very young and still developing, and some people have even said he could be a Hanley Ramirez when he realizes his potential. To those people, I say sloooooow down. Now while I cannot discount that Castro has a good chance at being an impact player, the one knock on him is his plate discipline (is there ever a Cubs prospect that doesn't have that issue?). People write that off as a small flaw, but I think people underestimate how that small knock can get worse and worse as a player has progresses through the system. (Cubs fans should know that better than most.) Now Castro is still above average at getting on base, and has that promise of pop- so he still has a good shot. If things go well early on (emphasis on if), we could get our answer as to whether he's the real deal sometime in 2010. Castro probably will not figure into opening day plans, but he could be seen later on. The certainties the Cubs have right now are Soto, Lee, Theriot, Ramirez, Fukudome and Soriano in the lineup, Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly and Wells in the rotation and Marmol, Guzman and Chad Fox (just kidding... kinda) in the bullpen. Kevin Gregg, Rich Harden and Milton Bradley are almost locks to be gone. Everything else is up in the air. Second base will probably be an in-house competition between Mike Fontenot, Jeff Baker and Andres Blanco. Fontenot and Baker bring (potentially) average bats and average gloves. Blanco brings a plus glove and a minus bat. There will be no superstar contributions here most likely, but the Cubs don't need one. They need someone who can pull their weight, and I think the option is there. My personal favorite is Jeff Baker, who has a bit more power and a bit more patience, but he definitely doesn't outclass Fontenot in either of those categories. The fifth starter will boil down to Jeff Samardizja, Tom Gorzelanny and Sean Marshall. Though I think Marshall is sort of becoming increasingly entrenched in that bullpen. I actually think John Grabow's return could be tied to this thing. If the Cubs feel Samardzija is the man, Gorzelanny could move to the bullpen as a second lefty and Grabow could be sent packing. I expect the Cubs to offer Grabow arbitration, and I actually expect him to ultimately return. That will leave Samardzija and Gorzelanny to compete in the Spring with the loser getting Gaudin'ed (though Gaudin now has a WS ring... hmm...). I guess the bottom line is, I do not expect a new face to be brought in here either. So where do I see new faces being brought in? Simple, outfield and bullpen. If a Milton Bradley trade does not net an outfielder, such as Pat Burrell or Aaron Rowand, I really expect Mike Cameron to be a prime target. He won't command huge money, he still is a plus defender in centerfield and he is also a productive bat. There will be no Jason Bay or Matt Holliday here, so Cameron would be a realistic option that I could live with. The other benefit is pushing Fukudome back to right field, making 2/3's of the outfield pretty good defensively. With Marmol, Guzman, and two of Marshall/Grabow/Gorzelanny taking four of the bullpen spots, the Cubs probably have three spots open. I was highly impressed with Esmailin Caridad, who posted a 1.40 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 17 strikeouts to 3 walks. He doesn't even need to keep up those numbers to make the team, but it wouldn't break my heart if he did keep them up. Aaron Heilman has a shot at returning, which is, meh, about average in my book. Keep him away from the setup role and I'll live with him. The last spot could go to a free agent: Kiko Calero might be the only decent option there. If Calero is not an option, I'd be inclined to stay with a youngster like Mitch Atkins or Justin Berg, as any reliever brought in with a major league deal almost certainly will not be worth it. Also of note, David Patton no longer has to stay on the 25-man, so I don't expect him to be there opening day. Finally on the bench: Koyie Hill may be back, but there was talk of the Cubs wanting a bit more offense from the backup catcher. To me that is like saying, "I want a bit more water out of this desert". Don't expect miracles there. Jake Fox will probably have a spot. Aaron Miles could get one last shot, but the Cubs have to say goodbye to one of Fontenot, Miles, Baker or Blanco, and you know who I would vote off that island. Finally, Micah Hoffpauir and Sam Fuld will probably battle it out for the last spot IF Reed Johnson is allowed to walk (which should probably happen). Realistically, no one should be signed for this bench as there are plenty of candidates around already. Signing a free agent here just doesn't make sense, just like it didn't make sense to get Aaron Miles last year. So for me, realistically it boils down to this. Do not expect sweeping changes. I see one or two new position players and maybe one or two new arms. That all depends on what happens with the Bradley situation. With that said, I still think this team can bounce back and be good in 2010. You had down years from Soriano and Soto and injuries plaguing the rotation. If nothing else, the bullpen will lose Kevin Gregg, which is a win any way you slice it. Posted in: Offseason | ||