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Offensive Explosion!
Posted by: partyvancaptain on June 14, 2009 at 5:10 pm

Gerald Perry gets the boot, and the team explodes for 3 runs! Coincidence? I think not!

OK, well here is my uneducated theory on a hitting coach. Veterans like Soriano, Bradley and even Fukudome and Theriot, should not need this much help from a hitting coach. But when you have Theriot swinging like he is Manny, and Soriano constantly being fooled on the same pitch over and over and over again, you have to shake something up, I suppose. I do not expect Von Joshua to suddenly make Fukudome stop that stupid spinning thing or teach Soriano what a breaking ball is. These guys are getting on the back nine of their professional careers. If they don't have an idea how to correct themselves, then there are bigger issues.

With that said, I guess a change needed to be made, and you aren't going to eat hundreds of millions of dollars in player salary. Von Joshua is best known for his days as a White Sox hitting coach on teams that included Frank Thomas, Albert Belle, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee and even Jose Canseco. He is also known as the guy that helped Theriot find his "power" stroke- so he already has one strike on him (HITTING PUN) in my book.

Meanwhile, the Cubs continued to struggle for runs. Lee and Soto looked good, and even Kosuke had a couple of drives that went for warning-track outs. However for all those, you had Bradley about as patient as a Chicago taxi driver. You had Aaron Miles continue to make me almost yearn for the days of Neifi (almost). You also had Soriano with another 0-fer. Interesting note on Soriano is that he has not had a multi-hit game since May 17th. His hit columns since then have read like a binary sequence. Good stuff from our $18 million man.

A couple of notes to suplement my OPS+ stuff yesterday. The Cubs going into today as a team were at 86, which is the lowest since 2006, when they also had an OPS+ of 86 behind the big bats of Juan Pierre, Ronny Cedeno and Phil Nevin. This lineup has a lot more talent and a lot more money put into it. It should not be on par with that team.

Also, since I began yesterday's post trumpeting some of the other choices the Cubs could have had for right field, I figure I will use OPS+ once more in evaluating the 4 choices. Bradley, Ibanez, Dunn and Abreu had OPS+'s of 163, 124, 127 and 120 in 2008. So, yes, Bradley looks good. But factor in games played, and career numbers of 116, 116, 131 and 132, you can see maaaaybe Bradley had a good year on a contract year. Someone really needs to teach Jim Hendry about looking at a player's career numbers. Also of note is Aaron Miles had an OPS+ of 99 last year, his only year close to average. Every other year of his career he was not even close. A quick glimpse at his career numbers would have shown you that. Apparently 29 other GMs saw it, too.

I'm starting to get more and more angry typing this. I need to stop doing research on these players, because the more I research, the more it becomes apparent Hendry did no research. Or at the very least not the right kind of research.

So the crosstown series is renewed Tuesday, and the White Sox have their own offensive problems going on. Knowing baseball, this series will be dominated by offense, Von Joshua will be a hero and Gerald Perry will be crying in his beer. Oh, but Randy Wells still will not get a win.


Posted in: Gerald Perry, Von Joshua, OPS+
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Easy as 1, 2.......
Posted by: partyvancaptain on June 13, 2009 at 12:06 pm

The Milton Bradley signing has not gone well so far. The whole thing was questionable from the start. There were four potential left-handed (because that was soooo necessary) outfielders: Milton, Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn and Raul Ibanez. Now ignoring Ibanez's ridiculous season, which I cannot fault Hendry for not predicting, why was Bradley such a target for Hendry, to the point where he was paying him much more than he needed to? Adam Dunn, while no defensive wizard, has a much better health history (one season with less than 150 games played since 2002) and can absolutely rake. Forget the strikeouts, because Dunn also walks an enormous amount (over 100 in each of the last 5 years) and hits balls really far (at least 40 home runs in each of the last 5 years), which would be a scary prospect at Wrigley. Not to mention he signed for less money. Bobby Abreu is another guy. While he has lost his power stroke, he can get on base (35 walks to 30 strikeouts- thats an eye) and again, has a good health history, playing at least 150 games every year since 1998. The obsession Hendry had with Bradley this offseason was based off one good contract year. Now the Cubs are stuck with him, while they could have had at least three other guys with more proven track records.

After Milton's wonderful display yesterday, where he made an absolute jackass out of himself, it would be easy to pin a lot of the dropoff from last year to this year on him. In fact, it seems like every move made since November '08 has backfired. But it looks like a lot of the incumbent players have also fallen from their 2008 numbers.

OPS is a pretty decent measure of how good a hitter is overall. It adds together OBP, which measures a hitter's patience, with Slugging, which of course is a measure of a hitter's power. OPS+ is a statistic that compares a player to the league average that year, much like ERA+. It also adjusts for ballpark, so an OPS of .890 at Petco is better than an OPS of .890 at Citizen's Bank Park. 100 means average, so 101 would be 1% better than average, and 99 is 1% below average. OK? OK, let's check out some of the numbers.

The Cubs offense was good last year, and there is not much debating about that. The team overall OPS+ was 103, which when taking into account this is for the whole team, including pitchers, is not terribly bad. That number this year has fallen all the way down to 87. That kind of drop could be a ride at Six Flags. So why the drop? Let's compare the everyday lineups, and see.

  • At catcher, Soto had a great year in 2008, showing a decent enough eye and great power for a catcher. His OPS+ was 120 in 2008, which is great. Awesome. Fast forward to this year, and the number has dropped to 64. He has almost cut his production in half. And OPS+ is not a number that accumulates, so the only way that number will change is if he gets back to hitting.
  • Derrek Lee has dropped, but not that drastically. 110 in '08, 105 in '09. As I said before, he had a poor April, and is hitting much better lately, so he is not the problem here.
  • Second base is where will put Mark DeRosa, even though he played everywhere. Now this is the #1 move that all Cubs fans have loathed. He had a career year last year, and had a 118 OPS+. This year, due to injuries, the second base position has sort of been in flux. Mike Fontenot, the opening day starter, is sitting at 89, which is not very good. BUT, according to baseball-reference.com, the player who has logged the most time there is Aaron Miles. Well, sit down for this, because Aaron Miles 2009 OPS+ to date is.... 30. That is 30% of the league AVERAGE. I cannot stress how bad that number really is. Other second basemen used were Blanco (55- yikes) and Scales, who actually was at 104. Of course this 104 got him sent back to the minors so we can keep Aaron Miles out there every day. Honestly, who thought that Aaron Miles was a good idea? Like ever?
  • Ryan Theriot is an interesting case, because he actually has gotten a bit better this year (93 in '08 to 97 in '09). He is hitting for much more power, which isn't saying much, and less average. Either way, he is not so much the problem here, stats wise. If he continues swinging like he's Albert Pujols though, eventually he will be.
  • Aramis Ramirez in 2008 just kept doing what he does best in 2008, with an OPS+ of 128. He's a really good player, and there is not much doubt that his absence has been what has held this team down for the most part. In a small sample size, that claim is supported. Before his injury, Ramirez was sitting at 157. That's around Mark Teixeira territory there. However since then he has been replaced with the 89 from Fontenot and -1 (YES NEGATIVE FRIGGIN ONE) from Ryan Freel. Freel has limited playing time, so that -1 obviously will not represent him for the full year. But let's just say he won't be seeing triple digits any time soon, or ever.
  • Soriano in left field had 121 in 2008, and has tumbled down to 97 in 2009. Yes, he has been a below average hitter this year. $18 million for a below average hitter. Best part about it? This is only year 3 of 8. He will be above 100 by years end, but as this contract grinds on, I suspect 97 might be a good number for Fonzi.
  • Now Kosuke has played two different positions in two years. In right field (2008) had a famously poor final two thirds of the season, but by virtue of a good number of walks, came in at 90. This year in center, Kosuke has jumped to 122, but it should be noted that he was around there at this point last year, too. His numbers are starting to free fall like last year, so 122 may be just a mirage.
  • Finally we will compare Edmonds to Bradley. Edmonds led the Cubs in OPS+ in 2008, granted coming after a month and a half, with 136. Milton Bradley, who apparently is more left handed than Edmonds... since that was what the goal of replacing Edmonds with Bradley was (or so it was said when signing Bradley)... has OPS+'ed a whopping 84. What makes this even more enraging is Bradley's OPS+ last year was 163, leading the American League. He, like Soto, has nearly halved his production.
  • Reed Johnson has remained even, which is nice after seeing these numbers. 99 last year, 98 this year. He is pretty much average, which looks awesome from where the Cubs sit right now.
Scapegoating one player in this situation would be totally misguided. Bradley has been bad, yes. But Soto, Fontenot and Soriano have all dropped their production, and Aaron Miles belongs in a Church softball league somewhere. Last year, all but two every day players were above the league average hitting wise. This year, all but two are below the league average.

*Insert Lou voice* I wish I could explain it. I really do. But as I have learned with the Cubs, there is no point explaining. To have the third highest payroll, and the 25th most productive offense, is maddening. And now Twins fans are starting to invade Wrigley. Baseball is a cruel sport sometimes.

Stats are from baseball-reference.com


Posted in: OPS+, Milton Bradley
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