Pulling the Plug on Robocop
Posted by: partyvancaptain on August 18, 2009 at 11:59 amThere has been a disturbing trend in the closers role, and I must apologize for defending it initially. Kevin Gregg had a good run early on, but lately he has been stinky bad. The odd thing is, what is happening with him now is pretty crazy. Looking at Fangraphs.com's stats on Kevin Gregg:
His flyball percentage this year is 46.6%, which is actually up from his career average of 42%. But what happens with those flyballs is so nuts: 15% (!!!) have gone for home runs. Last year, it was 4.4% and his career is 8.5%. I would say that a lot of it is pitching at Wrigley Field, BUT of the 12 (!!!) home runs he has given up, 7 were on the road, so that really does not account for it. He's just not done well.
Chances are he will not be back next year, with the escalating backloaded contracts, and now the spectacular failures. He was a questionable pickup to begin with, with 9 blown saves last year. While he did give us some decent numbers for a couple of months, I think that is about as good as we will see from Kevin Gregg.
So now, who closes? Carlos Marmol's control is terrible (8.31 BB/9, but I didn't need to tell you that), and Sean Marshall/John Grabow are lefty specialists. So of course that leaves: Aaron Heilman. Er... I mean, Angel Guzman. He is the best option, but that's not saying he is a great option here is why:
On the surface, Guzman looks good. 2.42 ERA, 0.98 WHIP (really good), but the one thing that does concern me is his BABIP against. The league average is .302, and he currently sits at .218. The thing about BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is that it has a HUGE luck factor, and is not as dependent on pitching skill. Now granted, his stuff may get cause weaker contact and that helps, but still .218 is telling me he is getting at least somewhat lucky to this point. There is a good chance that will get higher,. So while I expect Guzman to be better than what we have seen, we still have a black hole in the back of the bullpen. More and more, this season is looking like the 101st lost season in a row for the Cubs, and the window to capitalize on this group of players is closing fast.
Posted in: Kevin Gregg, Angel Guzman
Add or View Comments (0)Thoughts on the Last Month
Posted by: partyvancaptain on August 3, 2009 at 11:09 pmThis last month has been a good one for the Cubs, even if the injury bug has continued to bite hard. Being more specific, this post all-star break stretch has been great. I am pretty cautiously excited, even if the Cardinals have managed to revamp their entire lineup in July.
- Aramis Ramirez is looking good coming back. Derrek Lee continues to rake. Alfonso Soriano has finally halted the worst slump of his career. Kosuke has done pretty well at lead off, and Jake Fox continues to rake off the bench. The lineup is finally starting to pull its weight. Heck, even Milton Bradley has had his moments.
- Speaking of Milton, I appreciate his effort in trying to draw walks. If you are not getting the pitch you can drive, then why go for it and make an out. That ends with two strikes however. Still too many caught looking third strikes from this guy. I'm beyond hoping for great things from him, so all I am asking for is a productive bat, and I think he will give the Cubs that.
- Kevin Gregg is average. He's not terrible, but he's not great. He is average. The problem with being a closer is that your failures are magnified so greatly because of just how close victory was when you failed. Kevin Gregg cannot win, to be honest, as he replaced a Cubs favorite, so every blown save will have people calling for his head... and some even calling for his life (sadly). I have said this before about him, he doesn't have an overpowering fastball or a great breaking ball. He has to stay around the plate, because he doesn't have wicked stuff like Marmol to bail him out. Unfortunately, messing around the zone with his stuff will lead to homers, naturally, and we definitely saw that. We probably will see more of it, but as long as it happens on rare occasions, I will learn to live with it.
- Marmol is maddening, however. 2008 Marmol would have been poised to take the closer's role by now, but 2009 Marmol is definitely not. He has proven he can keep the walks down in the past, so I guess not all hope is lost.
- With that, Angel Guzman should be the one in line to grab the role if Kevin Gregg really implodes. He has always had a lot of promise, and he may have just the right mix of stuff and control to be a really fine closer. Then again, so did LaTroy Hawkins.
- The I-Cubs have been huge. Jake Fox, Randy Wells, Andres Blanco and Jeff Stevens have been great so far. It is nice to see the farm system pulling through finally, even if it is more in the 'role player' department.
- Tomorrow Tom Gorzelanny starts in his Cubs debut. I am really hoping he is past the struggles he has had post-2007. Another lefty would be great to have around. If it doesn't work, then hopefully Lilly returns soon. Either way, this is a low risk, high reward scenario. Regardless of what people may think, Kevin Hart was probably not going to continue as well as he was.
The last thing I would say is the Cubs success has been great, but I also noticed the absence of one goateed, light-hitting middle infielder during this stretch. Therefore, I will keep the karma going and will not mention him here, but maybe, just maybe, that was not $5-million well spent.
Posted in: Kevin Gregg, Carlos Marmol, Angel Guzman, I-Cubs, Tom Gorzelanny, 5 Million Dollar Black Hole
Add or View Comments (0)Ow, My Brain!
Posted by: partyvancaptain on June 20, 2009 at 7:09 pmThe last two days can be described as ironic. Examples:
- Kerry Wood, the legendary figure who Cubs fans seem to pine for every time Robo Cop is navigating a rocky 9th (or 10th or 11th these days), has had a rough go of it, blowing two saves and taking the loss in one game. Meanwhile, Kevin Gregg, who fans have been reluctant to embrace, has pitched two scoreless innings, picking up one win in the process.
- Mark DeRosa, who would still be a great fit with this team right now, strikes out in an RBI situation that would have put Cleveland on top. Aaron Miles, the economic recession version of Mark DeRosa, manages to bloop a single into left field, getting a runner to third. That runner, Andres Blanco, also managed a single and would score the winning run on a Kerry Wood wild pitch (which isn't terribly uncommon). If you told me Blanco and Miles would key the game winning rally, well I would have punched you in the face for telling me such a terrible joke.
- Alfonso Soriano goes hitless again. But in a vote of confidence by Lou Piniella, yanks him in a double switch in order to keep the pitchers spot as far away from being up as possible. Now, I don't disagree with the move. A foursome of Blanco, Miles, pitcher's spot and Soriano is not exactly murderer's row. But that does say a heck of a lot about Soriano's status on the team. Good hitters, which Soriano is getting paid like, do not get pulled out of games like that. Lou is clearly losing it with this guy, and if he continues to swan dive to Aaron Miles with some pop territory, that leadoff spot will be taken by someone else. Bank on it.
- Milton Bradley is made to look silly by a pitcher who entered today's game with an 11.90 ERA and a .395 BAA. I guess that is not so ironic nowadays.
- Aaron Heilman reverts to April-May Heilman form, walking four hitters over two innings. But after a conference from Lou Piniella, strikes out a key man on three pitches. Yet another reason why that man is so maddening.
I have been looking today at potential second base options for the Cubs as trade rumors start to pick up, as it is pretty clear that the two areas that could get help are second base and the bullpen. The outfield is not going to get help with all the money going out there, and the rotation is solid as one can expect. Unfortunately, outside of Mark DeRosa, there are not many better options than Fontenot (once Ramirez returns). The one guy I thought about was Freddy Sanchez, but that would take some Ramirez-Lofton for Bobby Hill level swindling, and I'm not even sure Sanchez would be available. Just my half baked thoughts. But to close out this hodge podge of thoughts, here is a list of middle infielders the Cubs have thrown out there since 2002 (Jim Hendry's debut year). Kind of makes you wonder why the Cubs just cannot nail down a semi-permanent solution with everything that's been thrown against the wall this decade...
Mark Bellhorn, Bobby Hill, Alex Gonzalez, Delino Deshields, Augie Ojeda, Mark Grudzielanek, Ramon Martinez, Jose Hernandez, Tony Womack (twice), Todd Walker, Jose Macias, Nomar Garciaparra, Neifi Perez, Rey Ordonez (ugh), Damian Jackson, Jerry Hairston, Ronny Cedeno, Enrique Wilson, Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, Freddy Bynum, Cesar Izturis, Mark DeRosa, Eric Patterson, Aaron Miles, Ryan Freel, Bobby Scales and Andres Blanco.
Alright, I'm going to go drink away that awful taste that list just left in my mouth. Maybe someday, we will get the middle infield situation right.
Posted in: Kerry Wood, Kevin Gregg, Alfonso Soriano, Mark DeRosa, Middle Infield
Add or View Comments (0)Your Move
Posted by: partyvancaptain on June 3, 2009 at 3:42 pmKevin Gregg has been (kind of) affectionately refered to as Robocop by this here blogger. Well imagine the LOL'ing I did when I saw this quote from him after last night's meltdown.
"There was a glitch in the system..."
I can only hope Kevin Gregg 2.0 BETA is rolled out soon. It can't be any worse than Vista can it? HEYOOOOOOOO.
Posted in: Kevin Gregg, ERROR
Add or View Comments (0)Friday Evening Quarterback
Posted by: partyvancaptain on April 17, 2009 at 7:22 pmWhat an intense first couple of games against the Cardinals. I have to tell say, I think the Cardinals are going to do pretty well this year, and it will be great seeing this rivalry at its peak when both teams are relevant. When is the last time that happened? Probably 2004, and even then, the Cardinals ran away and hid with the division pretty early. Here are some thoughts on the game.
- Alfonso Soriano proves once again how maddening of a player he can be, but at this point, you know what you are going to get. Only he can look absolutely terrible against a pitcher making his debut, and yet come up with the game winner. That is Fonzy being Fonzy (with all due respect to Manny.) I heard some people saying he made a gesture at the Cardinals rounding first, but I think he was motioning towards Frumpy Sinatro. I could be wrong. Bottom line, we will find out soon how the Cardinals feel about it. I just hope Soriano doesn't have a repeat of last year against the Braves.
- Carlos Marmol proved why strikeouts are an important part of relieving. He got himself into trouble, but almost summoned a strikeout on command. That quickly ended much of the threat, and that is a tool that I think Kevin Gregg may not have.
- Speaking of Kevin Gregg, what the heck is up with this whole 'stiff knee' thing? And how come Hendry/Piniella didn't know anything about it until now? If he has this limitation (only being able to warm up once), then that should have been known quite a while before this point. Kevin Gregg (or robo cop as I like to call him) can be a valuable asset, but if he is limited to when and how he warms up, that could hand cuff us, and that could be bad.
- Captain Kneejerk says Geovanny Soto's past his prime. Maybe we can trade him and get Rich Hill back. Seriously, though, I am not too worried about Geo.
- Neal Cotts has found a niche as the LOWGY (Lefty One Walk GuY), a job previously filled by dearly departed Will Ohman. It is quite simple: he doesn't have devistating stuff. He has to nibble a lot. He doesn't have the control to nibble consistently. That leads to a lot of walks. If he has an on day he can be good, but that is a big if. The question is, how much patience will Lou have with him? Seems to be more than he ever had with Scott Eyre- who is doing OK for himself in Philly. Oh well.
That is all I got for now. On one last note, not that anyone would care, but I have banned Baseball Tonight from my television. Why? Well, I have MLB network, which is 10x better and actually covers all the teams. Seconly, John Kruk, when analyzing the fight between Boston and Los Angeles, actually had the audacity to compare the emotional state Los Angeles was in following Nick Adenhart's death with the emotional state Boston was in following... a slow start. Granted, it was almost certainly unintentional, but damn... a lot of teams get off to bad starts, and don't pick fights. Apparently it is just unacceptable for Boston... at least in ESPN's eyes. I don't like ESPN much. That is all.
Posted in: Cubs, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Geovanny Soto, Neal Cotts, Captain Kneejerk, ESPN Sucks
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