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mrschroeder08 partyvancaptain pee_callus25 Tags 2010 Preview 5 Million Dollar Black Hole AAAA Aaron Heilman Aaron Miles Alfonso Soriano Andres Blanco Angel Guzman Aramis Ramirez Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves B.J. 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All I can do is shake my head, because this trade is not nearly as bad as some people are making it out to be. Obviously getting rid of most of that Aaron Miles contract (even though it is only $1.7 million being saved ultimately) is a positive, but people seem to think trading Jake Fox is the second coming of Brock for Broglio. Let me put it simply: Jake Fox had a bit of value, but nearly as much as many Cubs fans think. He is a 27-year-old right-handed hitter with no defensive position. He can hit a fastball a mile and a half, but he is also pretty ineffective against anything else. After peaking in July, pitchers started to figure out Mr. Fox, and by September, he OPSed a measily .543. Am I saying he won't be a decent player for Oakland? No, but he wasn't going to lead the Cubs to the promised land, nor was he going to be the centerpiece in a trade for Roy Halladay or Curtis Granderson. On the plus side, the Cubs rid themselves of a very unnecessary piece in Aaron Miles, saving a bit of money, and got three prospects in the deal. Neither of those prospects will set the world on fire. Jeff Gray, a 28-year-old pitcher, will probably spend some time in the bullpen in 2010, and eat some innings. He had a decent year in Oakland's bullpen, and it can never hurt to have the extra arm. Matt Spencer, 23, showed some pop between A and AA last year, and could be a left-handed Jake Fox in a year or two, so fret not Fox fans. Finally Ronny Moria is the obligatory low-level project pitcher that the Cubs will try to turn into something. The Cubs have had a decent history with pitching prospects, so it could happen. Overall, not a blockbuster trade that will bring the organization to the next level, but it is also by no means a bad trade. Jake Fox was vastly overrated by Cubs fans, and I say that fully admitting he can be a productive player. Ultimately it opens up some bench spots. My scorecard now has the Cubs bench as Hill, Hoffpauir, Blanco and possibly Fuld. I do expect a trade or signing to fill another spot or two, and just pray Jim Hendry doesn't overpay for those players, like he did with Aaron Miles. Finally, and I have to admit I find this amusing, but I have never seen a GM totally undo an offseason's worth of work the very next year like Jim Hendry is doing now. Think about it: the big acquisitions after 2008: Kevin Gregg, Aaron Heilman, Aaron Miles, Luis Vizcaino and Milton Bradley. Not but one year later: Gregg is a free agent, Heilman is in Arizona, Miles is in Oakland, Vizcaino was gone before May and Bradley is being shopped like Hendry's first-born is at stake. In other words, the Cubs are now spending an offseason primarily undoing the last offseason. The winter meetings are coming up, so I expect a resolution on this Bradley situation soon, for better or for worse. Posted in: Aaron Miles, Jake Fox, Farewell Listen, Milton, I'm really happy for you, and I'm going to let you finish, but Todd Hundley was the greatest free agent bust of all time. </Kanye> Well there is not much left to say about what has ended up being a very, very mediocre season. Soriano finally got shut down, and Bradley may not be far behind. Randy Wells is coming back to earth, and in a week's time, the door may officially be closed. Looking forward to 2010 is not fun, either, what with the back loaded contracts and whatnot. Zambrano will reportedly be on the trading block this winter, and with Harden probably leaving via free agency, the rotation suddenly looks pretty thin at best. I am not going to talk about the rotation today however. Today, I am going to put to rest the idea that the Cubs should let the "kids" (very loosely used term here) play next year. I have been reading a lot of fans who are begging for an outfield of Fuld, Fox and Hoffpauir next year, claiming that that outfield will win more games. The pure insanity of that thought cannot be overstated. Sure, that would be an outfield cheap enough for a Pittsburgh Pirates payroll, but I guarantee that you will get Pittsburgh Pirate production out of it. My first reason is this: LOOK AT THE AGES ON THESE PLAYERS. These are not spry young players that normal organizations churn out. Hoffpauir is 29 (will be 30 before the 2010 season starts), Fox is 27 and Fuld is 27 (nearly 28). It would take a very strange circumstance for players that took that long to make it to the show to be even adequate full-time players. There are good reasons these players didn't start seeing many at-bats until their late 20's, a time when they should be PEAKING as major leaguers. For Micah Hoffpauir, it's as simple as his OBP. Batting average is a terrible way to look at a player. On base percentage tells A LOT more. Micah is below .300 in that category, and that is simply terrible. He has raw power, I will give him that. The thing is, you cannot have a player that makes outs at that rate in your every day lineup. It is one thing to rake against minor league pitching, but if there is a major hole in your swing, major league pitchers will go after it like Serena Williams going after that line judge. If you look at Micah's WARP to this point in his career, you will see that the average replacement-level player would be more valuable. That's not to say Micah isn't valuable. He is fine as a pinch hitter type, but as an everyday player, no thanks. Sam Fuld is an opposite case. In limited time, he has shown decent patience and a great eye, accumulating 13 walks to 10 strikeouts, giving you a respectable .379 OBP. But he has NO power. Kosuke Fukudome, despite looking like a hammer thrower at times, gives you the same OBP (.370 this year) plus some gap power. He has been among the league leaders for OPS by a CF. Yes, he is overpaid, but that money will be paid to him anyways. He is a better player than Fuld, and if Piniella uses him in a leadoff spot (where his OBP can be utilized) you've got a fine player. Fuld would be a good backup, but you cannot have two everyday players with little to no power, and the Cubs would have that with Fuld and Theriot (looks like his surge has ended). Finally, and this is tough to say, but Jake Fox is NOT the answer. His defense is suspect, and he has shown himself to look pretty foolish on certain offspeed pitches. Yes he has power, but again, you have to be wary of a player coming on at this age, with little to no hype. He is having a good stretch, but even so, his OBP is barely at the league average, and with more exposure, pitchers will find the holes in his swing. He is a perfect candidate to show off to an AL team, but I am not sure you would find too much through that route. Meatball fans are going to be clamoring for these "kids" all winter long. Well let me tell you of a player who came into his first major chunk of big league time at the age of 27. He had a good season, as a part time player, at the age of 28, with an OPS of .909, including 9 home runs in only 284 plate appearances. He was deemed to be ready for a full time role this year, only to fall off the map: a .691 OPS eventually losing that full time role. That player is of course, Mike Fontenot. The three players deemed "the future" by some fans are very much similar to Mr. Fontenot. They came up at a later age, and did a very good, if not decent, job in part time action. However they showed huge gaps in their game. For Fontenot, Fox and Hoffpauir, it is an absolutely hideous reaction to the offspeed and breaking stuff. For Fuld, it is a gigantic lack of any sort of power. Given full time roles, these three would probably not give many people what they want. I guess long story short, if you want to replace players on this Cubs team, the answer is NOT currently on this team. But hey, maybe the Pirates will want them. Posted in: Jake Fox, Micah Hoffpauir, Sam Fuld, Future, AAAA It has been a rough week for the Cub's dugout Gatorade dispenser. That is really unfortunate, because I think it looks like a really cool Gatorade dispenser. What's more, it is very durable. Carlos Zambrano threw a grade A fit today after the umpire (correctly) called Nyjer Morgan safe at home. Let us not forget that Morgan was in scoring position because of a ridiculous error on our $17 million dollar man in left field. Zambrano is going to face a suspension because, no matter who appeared to initiate it, contact was made with the umpire. That is unfortunate, as the Cubs can't seem to keep anyone on the main roster... except for Aaron Heilman. I do have one suggestion for the Cubs, though. Stop focusing on the umpires. Reed Johnson has it right. I mean, it's not like the umpire blew the call at home plate today. That is one of the things that keeps me from realing buying into this team. They go off on umpires. They go off on coolers. At least they aren't going off on each other (but a quick trade for Michael Barrett could fix that). Right now, focus on playing. The 2004 Cubs are examples 1, 2 and 3 when it comes to an embarassingly talented team that got distracted by minutae and was ultimately taken down by it all. This team is scarily reminiscent of that team. All we need is Milton Bradley going off on Bob Brenley on a team flight. I really hope that the 2009 Cubs end up rising above that, though. As for today's game, I have one observation and that is on Babe Fox, the new superstar slugger for the Cubs. Does he not look like a guy that belongs in the bleachers downing Old Style after Old Style rather than on the field? I mean, I jokingly refer to him as Babe Fox because of his insane AAA numbers, but he has the physical characteristics to boot. As long as he produces like he did today (granted it was one at bat), he can look like Horatio Sanz for all I care. Tomorrow, the best team (recordwise) in the majors comes to town, and you have to be feeling hungry for revenge at this point. The Dodgers are looking really good this year, and they, like us, are down a Ramirez. Regardless of what happens this weekend, I hope the Gatorade dispenser can be left alone. At least for two days. Posted in: Gatorade, Jake Fox, Carlos Zambrano, Los Angeles Dodgers The Cubs made a few changes today, and thank goodness on at least one count. Bobby Scales and Neal Cotts (YES!!!!) were optioned to AAA. Aaron Miles went to the DL. The Cubs called up Andres Blanco, Jason Waddell and Jake Fox. Cotts was obviously going to be gone shortly, and it is well past due. He can go walk AAA batters now. Bobby Scales supposedly had caught what Derrek Lee has, and his average had been plummeting. Aaron Miles will not be missed very much. Andres Blanco gives the Cubs a bit of flexibility in the infield, as Ryan Freel would have been the only backup infielder left. He was having a pretty good year at AAA, but not groundbreaking. Jason Waddell was brought up merely to have a lefty around. His ERA and WHIP are a very unimpressive 5.40 and 1.44 respectively. He can't be any worse than what we had, so whatever. Way to forget about getting a good lefthander this offseason, Hendry. But Babe Fox finally gets his chance to shine. He was touting a .423 average, 17 home runs and 50 RBIs in AAA. Now, before we all get too giddy, the Pie and Cedeno also put up gaudy AAA numbers before. Fox doesn't really have a position, and is essentially a right handed Micah Hoffpauir. At this point though, you have to give this guy a chance in the big leagues. Worst case you can showcase him as a piece in a trade later on this year. Best case, maybe he ends up finding a place where he can adequately fill-in defensively and give the Cubs some needed offense. Either way, this call up needed to happen. So we will see how things go with these three. At the very least, we better beat Pittsburgh. Posted in: Neal Cotts, Aaron Miles, Bobby Scales, Jake Fox, Jason Waddell, Andres Blanco, I-Cubs Dan asked me tonight how Jake Fox was doing at AAA. So I decided to have a look. In 19 games, accumulating 74 at bats, Jake Fox is hitting a mere .446 with TWELVE home runs and 31 RBI. Right now his OPS (On base Plus Slugging) is a robust 1.579. Basically the dude is having an "Triple Play Baseball '96 on Rookie setting" type April. Oh, and if you are concerned about how he is handling right-handers, since Jim Hendry is on that kick, 11 of his 12 home runs are off righties. I think Mr. Fox may be gracing Wrigley Field with his presence soon. Preferably at the expense of Joey Gathright. The question that remains is if this is for real, or if this is another in a long line of AAAA ballplayers from Iowa. (All statistics from www.minorleaguebaseball.com) Posted in: Jake Fox, Dominance, Minor Leagues, I-Cubs | ||