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mrschroeder08 partyvancaptain pee_callus25 Tags 2010 Preview 5 Million Dollar Black Hole AAAA Aaron Heilman Aaron Miles Alfonso Soriano Andres Blanco Angel Guzman Aramis Ramirez Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves B.J. 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Soriano finally got shut down, and Bradley may not be far behind. Randy Wells is coming back to earth, and in a week's time, the door may officially be closed. Looking forward to 2010 is not fun, either, what with the back loaded contracts and whatnot. Zambrano will reportedly be on the trading block this winter, and with Harden probably leaving via free agency, the rotation suddenly looks pretty thin at best. I am not going to talk about the rotation today however. Today, I am going to put to rest the idea that the Cubs should let the "kids" (very loosely used term here) play next year. I have been reading a lot of fans who are begging for an outfield of Fuld, Fox and Hoffpauir next year, claiming that that outfield will win more games. The pure insanity of that thought cannot be overstated. Sure, that would be an outfield cheap enough for a Pittsburgh Pirates payroll, but I guarantee that you will get Pittsburgh Pirate production out of it. My first reason is this: LOOK AT THE AGES ON THESE PLAYERS. These are not spry young players that normal organizations churn out. Hoffpauir is 29 (will be 30 before the 2010 season starts), Fox is 27 and Fuld is 27 (nearly 28). It would take a very strange circumstance for players that took that long to make it to the show to be even adequate full-time players. There are good reasons these players didn't start seeing many at-bats until their late 20's, a time when they should be PEAKING as major leaguers. For Micah Hoffpauir, it's as simple as his OBP. Batting average is a terrible way to look at a player. On base percentage tells A LOT more. Micah is below .300 in that category, and that is simply terrible. He has raw power, I will give him that. The thing is, you cannot have a player that makes outs at that rate in your every day lineup. It is one thing to rake against minor league pitching, but if there is a major hole in your swing, major league pitchers will go after it like Serena Williams going after that line judge. If you look at Micah's WARP to this point in his career, you will see that the average replacement-level player would be more valuable. That's not to say Micah isn't valuable. He is fine as a pinch hitter type, but as an everyday player, no thanks. Sam Fuld is an opposite case. In limited time, he has shown decent patience and a great eye, accumulating 13 walks to 10 strikeouts, giving you a respectable .379 OBP. But he has NO power. Kosuke Fukudome, despite looking like a hammer thrower at times, gives you the same OBP (.370 this year) plus some gap power. He has been among the league leaders for OPS by a CF. Yes, he is overpaid, but that money will be paid to him anyways. He is a better player than Fuld, and if Piniella uses him in a leadoff spot (where his OBP can be utilized) you've got a fine player. Fuld would be a good backup, but you cannot have two everyday players with little to no power, and the Cubs would have that with Fuld and Theriot (looks like his surge has ended). Finally, and this is tough to say, but Jake Fox is NOT the answer. His defense is suspect, and he has shown himself to look pretty foolish on certain offspeed pitches. Yes he has power, but again, you have to be wary of a player coming on at this age, with little to no hype. He is having a good stretch, but even so, his OBP is barely at the league average, and with more exposure, pitchers will find the holes in his swing. He is a perfect candidate to show off to an AL team, but I am not sure you would find too much through that route. Meatball fans are going to be clamoring for these "kids" all winter long. Well let me tell you of a player who came into his first major chunk of big league time at the age of 27. He had a good season, as a part time player, at the age of 28, with an OPS of .909, including 9 home runs in only 284 plate appearances. He was deemed to be ready for a full time role this year, only to fall off the map: a .691 OPS eventually losing that full time role. That player is of course, Mike Fontenot. The three players deemed "the future" by some fans are very much similar to Mr. Fontenot. They came up at a later age, and did a very good, if not decent, job in part time action. However they showed huge gaps in their game. For Fontenot, Fox and Hoffpauir, it is an absolutely hideous reaction to the offspeed and breaking stuff. For Fuld, it is a gigantic lack of any sort of power. Given full time roles, these three would probably not give many people what they want. I guess long story short, if you want to replace players on this Cubs team, the answer is NOT currently on this team. But hey, maybe the Pirates will want them. Posted in: Jake Fox, Micah Hoffpauir, Sam Fuld, Future, AAAA | ||