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Is this the year Ford and Chevy are somehow saved by a superior performance from a Michigan-based sports team? Read on to find out what a man with no credentials thinks. Detroit Tigers 2009 Record: 86-77 (2nd, AL Central) Key Additions: Johnny Damon (OF), Max Scherzer (SP), Jose Valverde (RP), Austin Jackson (OF), Phil Coke(RP), Daniel Schlereth (RP) Key Losses: Curtis Granderson (OF), Placido Polanco (2B), Edwin Jackson (SP), Aubrey Huff (1B), Fernando Rodney (RP), Jarrod Washburn (SP) Summary: You know, since the 2006 ALCS, life as a Detroit Tigers fan has been pretty disappointing. In the World Series that year, the supremely talented Tigers were dismissed in five games by a team with less talent, since that team happened to be riding a hot streak. After huge expectations in 2007 and especially 2008, Detroit would miss the playoffs both years, and sink below the Royals in '08. In 2009, the Tigers finally seemed to be back in the driver's seat in the division. They did not bank of the Minnesota Twins dominating the second half, and eventually bouncing the Tigers in a one game playoff. And now, it appears as though the team is going young. This year's edition of the Detroit Tigers lineup is a bit of a mix between veterans, Magglio Ordonez, Johnny Damon, Carlos Guillen for instance, and young players, such as Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. The lineup hinges on superstar Miguel Cabrera, however, who has had personal issues that may have contributed to the Detroit collapse. The odd thing is this makeup reminds me of the 2006 Cubs: a couple of great hitters (Lee and Ramirez; Cabrera and Ordonez), a couple of young players (Murton and Cedeno; Jackson and Sizemore) and in general an alright looking lineup on paper. I guess that comparison leads me to say the obvious: an injury to Cabrera would leave this lineup in shambles. Though Ordonez maintained his OBP, he slugged his lowest percentage since 1998. Johnny Damon is now 36, and you have to wonder if his 24 home runs were more a product of playing at Yankee Stadium (where he hit 17 of the 24). Brandon Inge is one of the best defensive players in baseball, but his offense is pretty much limited to home runs, and even that is hit and miss (27 last year, but 14 in 2007- his last full season before that). For Detroit, the hope is that Jackson and Sizemore come up aces, because Cabrera cannot carry the load the entire year. Even Pujols has Holliday. One of the sources of frustration for Detroit has been the rotation. Justin Verlander bounced back from a bad 2008 (4.84 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) to regain a spot among the games best. The one concern is he throw 240 innings. That is a lot and can do some damage to an arm. Speaking of damaged arms, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson have been MIA since 2006. Last season Bonderman pitched (very poorly) in 8 games, only starting one. Robertson had a good 2006, but even then his FIP was worse than average. His pitching has been steadily going downhill, and last season he, too, was demoted to the bullpen. I will talk about Dontrelle Willis shortly. The bottom line is if you told a Tigers fan that their 2008-2009-2010 rotation would have Verlander, Bonderman, Robertson and Willis, they would be happy. Now? Not so much. In come Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer. Porcello was in Rookie of the Year talk last season, and will likely be penciled in as the #2 on this staff. His K/BB was a bit low (89/52), and some of his other stats suggest he may have gotten lucky (.281 BABIP against). The question there is simple, does he regress a bit or does a year of experience help him overcome that possible regression? Max Scherzer on the other hand was a bit unlucky with Arizona and has some good K rates. He could be a really good starter in Detroit, thus making the Granderson trade a pretty good deal. By the way, as a Cubs fan, I am pleased as hell to see Valverde gone to the AL. Now Carlos Zambrano can reign supreme as the hot dog king of the NL Central. Cubs Connection: Remember one of the big stories of that 2003 NLCS? The one where the Cubs were fleeced in the Matt Clement deal? Yep, the Marlins got the quirky Dontrelle Willis in that trade, and it really looked like the Cubs let a surefire superstar go. Willis continued to progress to an elite-level ace in 2005, but started to regress from there. Once Willis hit Detroit in 2008, he Rich Hill'ed and was sent to the minors. Last year was not any better. With the Tigers, Willis has 57.2 big league innings over 2 years with a scary 63 walks to 35 strikeouts. Now it looks like the Cubs may not have given away the next big thing. For Willis, who is trying to make this team and make some positive contributions, the question is has he lost it for good? BIBGLBOOPSARG(tm) CF Austin Jackson LF Johnny Damon 1B Miguel Cabrera RF Magglio Ordonez DH Carlos Guillen 3B Brandon Inge 2B Scott Sizemore C Gerald Laird SS Adam Everett P Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson Closer: Jose Valverde Predicted Finish: Third place in the AL Central. As I said before, this lineup is very dependent on Miguel Cabrera. There are some okay pieces there, but nothing really stands out outside Cabrera and Verlander. Porcello I think is a bit overrated, and Scherzer is underrated, so that balances out. I do think this year could be the last before a sweeping youth movement if Detroit fails to make the playoffs again. Will they finally reach that bar they set in 2006? That window may be shut. Posted in: 2010 Preview, Detroit Tigers | ||