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The Good, The Bad and the Ugly
Posted by: partyvancaptain on June 9, 2009 at 8:51 pm

Today I thought I would throw some numbers out there about this here Cubs team. I have 6 numbers (3 good, 3 bad) which will be classified as the good, the bad, the ugly... um... the uglier, the better and the best. How's that? We will start with the worst number and move up to the best number so this post will finish on a positive note. After today's game, the Cubs deserve it. Here we go...

  • The Ugliest: 119,958,000. That is the amount of money the Cubs already have committed to next year's team. That doesn't even include arbitration eligible players, such as Ryan Theriot and Carlos Marmol who will probably get nice little raises. I think this number accounts for the salaries of like 8 or 9 guys. Outside of the Yankees, that is by far the biggest amount committed next year, and dwarfs the ENTIRE 2009 payroll for almost 2/3rds of the other teams. With the ownership situation in limbo, don't expect much more spending. And the best part? Hendry topped off the contracts for Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Zambrano, Dempster and Bradley with No Trade Clauses. We're stuck. Again, Hendry is overrated. (credit to http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/)
  • The Ugly: 88. If Lou continues using Marmol at the pace he has so far (in 55 games, including tonight), that is how many games Marmol will pitch in. Combine that with the World Baseball Classic, are you surprised he is struggling? Putting him in games where the game is not close doesn't help. Lou might finally be getting the hint though. One can only hope.
  • The Bad: 10. The amount of men left on base tonight by our big signing, Milton Bradley. What an awful display, especially that last at bat, where he appeared to have given up on it once the count got to 1-2. Now this isn't horrible, because having 10 men on base means that the Cubs offense was cracking tonight (except for Milton and Theriot). But come on, in 6 at bats you think you would at least stumble ass backwards into an RBI. Yeesh.
  • The Good: .342. Derrek Lee's on-base percentage coming into play today. Now on the surface, that is not a very great OBP. But when you look at Lee's April OBP, which was a disgusting .253, you can see that this is moving in a very good direction. In May, and so far in June, Lee has been over .400 in OBP, which is a much better indicator of hitting than batting average, in my opinion. Derrek Lee is showing a discerning eye at the plate, and that is ultimately giving him more pitches to hit. Looks like Lee might not be finished after all.
  • The Better: 1.01. Randy Wells' WHIP in 6 starts this year. Anything around 1 is pretty good, especially for a guy like Randy, who was in no way, shape or form part of this year's plans. Randy is a great indicator why wins are a terrible metric for determining a pitcher's worth. That and Jason Marquis, who leads the NL in wins. He will get his win as long as he pitches the way he has been. The big part of that is right there in the WHIP, though. If you are only averaging one baserunner per inning, you are not going to get in very many jams, and your pitch count won't jump on you.
  • The Best: 1.91. That is the bullpen ERA since Neal Cotts was exiled to Iowa on 5/27. This is also over 37.2 innings, including tonight, which means this is no small sample size. The bullpen has really brought it together, minus one big exception, and that has lead to a pretty good road trip so far. Much better than the last one. They are still walking way too many people (25 in those 37.2 innings), but they aren't giving up too many hits. The pitchers leading the charge? Angel Guzman, and Aaron Heilman. Just goes to show you the impact this blog can have on a pitcher. Heilman, since Cotts left (because that's clearly what held Heilman back), has only walked 2 batters in 6.2 innings, and given up 1 run for a 1.35 ERA. This is very encouraging. On the flip side, Marmol has walked 9 in 7 innings (YIKES), which may or may not be related to the blatant overuse Lou is putting him through. Either way, if the other bullpen options keep up this kind of work, we are in good shape.
If you look up, you will see 25 Cardinals plummetting back to Earth. They are starting to realize exactly what kind of team they are, and hopefully Milwaukee will follow suit. Bottom line, this Cubs team is also playing over its head, but there are two major reinforcements, Harden and Ramirez, that will make this team pretty darn good.

Oh, and congrats to Brett Jackson- the Cubs first round draft pick tonight. I put up the list of busts a couple weeks ago, and I am begging whoever is charged with developing this guy: whatever you did with Ryan Harvey, DO NOT do that with Brett Jackson. If you don't, I'm sure thing will work out great.


Posted in: Payroll, Bullpen, Derrek Lee, Randy Wells, Brett Jackson
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Scouting San Fran, New Slugger and more
Posted by: partyvancaptain on May 4, 2009 at 6:09 pm

Been a bit since I've posted. Since we have a quick two-gamer against San Francisco, and I live in that area, I figure I'll give you a bit of knowledge as to what I know/heard about them.

San Francisco is definitely a sleeper-type team. They have really good pitching. The man going tonight (and currently having trouble) is Jonathan Sanchez. He is a bit of a Sean Marshall type. Pretty serviceable lefty. Tomorrow's starter, Tim Lincecum, is in a couple words, a freak. The dude is about my size, but can really throw heat. He won the Cy Young last year, and deservedly so. You have to wonder how he gets that much power without killing his arm. Some out here wonder, too, but people have said it is the use of his hips and lower body that take the pressure off his arm. He uses his lower body as good as any pitcher in the game. Time will tell if that is enough to not destroy his arm.

Offensively, San Francisco is a work in progress. They have a pretty veteran outfield, with nothing to fear too much. Aaron Rowand is coming off a down year after (you guessed it) a contract year. Randy Winn is decent, and Fred Lewis is one of those guys who could be a good leadoff man if he took more walks. The infield is still finding their way. Emmanuel Burriss beat out another youngster, Kevin Frandsen, for the second base job, and has yet to find his stroke. Travis Ishikawa is also trying to find his stroke. A man to look out for is Pablo Sandoval (nicknamed Panda by some). He is a very aggressive hitter, but people are talking up this man's hitting stroke. He had good numbers at the end of last season. He appears to be a switch-hitting Randall Simon. He won't walk much (4 walks so far, 3 intentional) but he can be dangerous. Benji Molina is their best hitter, but may be slower than Brad Miller speed-wise.

Meanwhile the Cubs have found a new power source: Ryan friggin' Theriot. Let me set the scene for you. More home runs than Soto and Bradley combined. As many home runs as Lee and Ramirez. For a couple innings there, he was outslugging Mr. Lee. It is nice to see Ryan showing some power.

Seriously though, Derrek Lee has me wondering what is going on with him. He hit two home runs, including one grand slam, against his old team, the Florida Marlins. The thing about those home runs, though, is that neither one were cheap. One overshot the bleachers. So what is the deal with Derrek Lee? Since July '08, he has shown mostly warning track power, and now all of a sudden he has shown that he has a lot more than just that. Maybe some nagging injuries are clearing up. Maybe he has heard Dan's pleas. But more than anything, it looks like he hit the ball where it was pitched. He finally pulled a ball that he should pull, and he went to center with a ball he should have hit to center. It is clear the dude still has power. If he can stay on this path, and Milton Bradley can get to form, the Cubs have a video game lineup. One can only hope.

Finally, Carlos Zambrano. The Cubs have finally been informed of the magical DL so many of these kids are using these days. Unfortunately, Carlos has to be the one to go. The Cubs lose thier most durable pitcher, and maybe their best pinch hitter, all in one swipe. I can't fault him for doing what he did. Look, he's an athlete. He should be able to run out a bunt ground ball, especially one that well placed, without injury. Bottom line, the team shouldn't need to rely on him to do something like that. The slumps of Soto, Bradley, Lee and Miles forced us to rely on some offense from our scary pitcher man. We are paying the price now, but he will be back shortly. And maybe by then, our video game lineup will live up to its billing and live will be peaches again. Because, let's face it, the Cardinals are *not* that good. They will realize it, and it will be on the Cubs to get straight and reclaim what they should have.

As I post this, Sandoval hits a double. Told you to watch out for him.


Posted in: San Francisco Giants, Ryan Theriot, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano
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Contract Year Blues
Posted by: partyvancaptain on April 29, 2009 at 8:39 pm

This may admittedly be a Captain Kneejerk type thread, and I hope by the end of the year I am eating these words. But to be honest, I sang this refrain for a while now, and so far it always ends up true. This isn't a problem that is exclusive to the Cubs (see: New York Yankees) but man, Jim Hendry seems to fall for this a lot.

And in the end, I say the same thing: BEWARE THE CONTRACT YEAR. Let's look at the evidence.
  • Derrek Lee (2005): This is a classic example of a contract year. Granted, the whole wrist injury didn't help him at all. But I think Dan's post illustrates a bigger problem with Mr. Lee. He was in triple crown consideration for half the year, and ended up winning the hitting title with 46 home runs to boot. Since then, 51 home runs in 1435 at bats. And we still have to pay for that one year through 2010. Though on the bright side, next year is another contract year.
  • Alfonso Soriano (2006): Yes, that Alfonso Soriano. He is a maddening player. He is doing quite well through one month this year. But let's be honst, that insane contract he got was for the 40-40-40 season he had in Washington. Of course, he has been injured in his first two years here, but with that said, he has played at a more hitter-friendly ballpark. He hasn't come close to that. Nor should he be expected to. But rather than negotiate with him to pay more for what his value is, we threw a bunch of money at him, and now we sit with it for a long time. He will produce, but I think we could have been a bit wiser with that money.
  • Ryan Dempster (2008): This one could become a counter example, and I hope it does, but a career sub-.500 pitcher with an ERA near 5 who has been a reliever for four years, comes up with a great year at the age of 31, you *MUST* be wary of it. Now, maybe it really was Ryan's new glove-flippy delivery, but chances are he will revert back to form shortly afterwards. And you will pay him as if he is that 2008 form. Oops.
Those are only three examples. And there are plenty of examples of guys who had terrible years on a contract year. Jason Marquis in '06 is an example of that. Though for some reason we still overpaid him... odd. It isn't as if every player who has free agency on the horizon will bust out and have a great year. I am just begging Jim Hendry to look at players who do with a bit more of a critical eye. Worst case we lose out on those guys, but we can most definitely replace them with our payroll with wiser investments.

I don't believe in curses. I believe in bad management. Jim Hendry has made good trades, don't get me wrong. But I think he is below average when it comes to free agents and contracts. Anyone can throw a bunch of money at the guy who just had a good year, and tie up the organization in a bad contract. It takes a good scouting staff and a keen GM to find guys like Ryan Ludwick, Carlos Quentin (who I do believe was traded for admittedly) and Jason Werth. Heck, David Ortiz was initially signed as a Twins castoff for 1 year and $1.25 million.

I have a few other bones to pick with the way the Cubs are run. (Hint: one of the issues rhymes with the word Blinors.) I will talk about those later.


Posted in: Free Agency, Contracts, Ryan Dempster, Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Jim Hendry, Captain Kneejerk
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Lineup Shakeup!
Posted by: partyvancaptain on April 24, 2009 at 5:59 pm

Lou did what no one thought he would do. He moved Soriano out of the leadoff spot. What's this? He also moved Derrek Lee out of the three hole? Funny how it takes a slump to do something that should have been done long, long ago (more referring to the Lee thing, but the Soriano thing also fits that bill). Well so far, through 3 innings, the new, improved lineup has 1 hit through 3 innings. Make that 2 in 3+. A slump is a slump no matter how you shuffle it.

The nice thing about a potent lineup like the Cubs have is they, much like Milton Bradley, can erupt at any time. Speaking of Milton Bradley, that'll be a fun post upcoming on that debacle.


Posted in: Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Lineup
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