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A Grand Idea?
Posted by: partyvancaptain on November 18, 2009 at 8:18 pm

In 2007-08, it was Brian Roberts. In 2008-09, Jake Peavy was the name. Could the hot rumor of the 2009-10 Cubs offseason be Curtis Granderson?

The Detroit Tigers are looking to shed payroll, and Granderson, a Chicago native, could be one of the players leaving. Granderson had an off year last season and has 3 years at $25.75 million left on his deal. The Angels and Yankees are rumored to be interested in the 28-year-old as well.

I've read some opine that Granderson would be simply a left-handed Soriano. That is an extremely narrow view of him. First of all, to compare Soriano and Granderson defensively is to compare night and day. Granderson has shown a ton of range in a spacious center field in Comerica park. Not to mention the added benefit of moving Fukudome back to right, where he is an above-average defender.

Second, the Granderson's WARP, even in a down year, was at 3.4. Fangraphs computes him to have been worth $15.2 million, which makes his salary a bargain (still). Why is this? Though Granderson's OBP was just below league average, he still showed tons of power in a big park. His OPS+ ultimately ended up about average, but he did not have the lopsided K/BB rate of Soriano, nor did he have the minus-minus-defense.

Ultimately, if the Cubs were somehow able to pull this off, I think it would be great. He is just entering his prime years, so his physical abilities could still be reaching their full potential. Defensively alone, he would be a tremendous pickup. And at Wrigley Field, he could really do some damage with the bat. I mean, come on, 30 HRs with 81 games at Comerica.

The one issue, pointed out by Keith Law, is that Curtis Granderson is pretty much an Aaron Miles against left handed pitching, OPSing a putrid .484. With Fukudome also having trouble against southpaws, a trade like this would suddenly increase the need for a right handed outfielder, maybe two. That would probably mean a return for Reed Johnson. There are definitely hidden costs to this trade.

Ultimately, I do not think the Cubs have the resources, be they financially or in the farm system, to pull this off. If by some off chance, they do, I really hope Jim Hendry looks past Granderson's high strikeout totals (which should not be a factor) and can pull this off. The much greater chance is a free agent pickup. I had originally predicted Mike Cameron, but it looks like Marlon Byrd might be the man. To that I say "meh", he is an alright hitter. His K/BB was not impressive last season, but he did hit for much more power. In 2008, he had a great OBP, but not as much power. If he could put it together, then I would think this is a steal. And who knows, maybe Rudy Jaramillo (his former hitting coach) is the guy to help him do just that. Ultimately, the Cubs could do worse.

But even though they are probably a pipe dream, these Granderson rumors make me wonder if they could do much, much better.

(Stats from baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com)


Posted in: Curtis Granderson, Marlon Byrd, Offseason
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