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The Good, The Bad and the Ugly
Posted by: partyvancaptain on June 9, 2009 at 8:51 pm

Today I thought I would throw some numbers out there about this here Cubs team. I have 6 numbers (3 good, 3 bad) which will be classified as the good, the bad, the ugly... um... the uglier, the better and the best. How's that? We will start with the worst number and move up to the best number so this post will finish on a positive note. After today's game, the Cubs deserve it. Here we go...

  • The Ugliest: 119,958,000. That is the amount of money the Cubs already have committed to next year's team. That doesn't even include arbitration eligible players, such as Ryan Theriot and Carlos Marmol who will probably get nice little raises. I think this number accounts for the salaries of like 8 or 9 guys. Outside of the Yankees, that is by far the biggest amount committed next year, and dwarfs the ENTIRE 2009 payroll for almost 2/3rds of the other teams. With the ownership situation in limbo, don't expect much more spending. And the best part? Hendry topped off the contracts for Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Zambrano, Dempster and Bradley with No Trade Clauses. We're stuck. Again, Hendry is overrated. (credit to http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/)
  • The Ugly: 88. If Lou continues using Marmol at the pace he has so far (in 55 games, including tonight), that is how many games Marmol will pitch in. Combine that with the World Baseball Classic, are you surprised he is struggling? Putting him in games where the game is not close doesn't help. Lou might finally be getting the hint though. One can only hope.
  • The Bad: 10. The amount of men left on base tonight by our big signing, Milton Bradley. What an awful display, especially that last at bat, where he appeared to have given up on it once the count got to 1-2. Now this isn't horrible, because having 10 men on base means that the Cubs offense was cracking tonight (except for Milton and Theriot). But come on, in 6 at bats you think you would at least stumble ass backwards into an RBI. Yeesh.
  • The Good: .342. Derrek Lee's on-base percentage coming into play today. Now on the surface, that is not a very great OBP. But when you look at Lee's April OBP, which was a disgusting .253, you can see that this is moving in a very good direction. In May, and so far in June, Lee has been over .400 in OBP, which is a much better indicator of hitting than batting average, in my opinion. Derrek Lee is showing a discerning eye at the plate, and that is ultimately giving him more pitches to hit. Looks like Lee might not be finished after all.
  • The Better: 1.01. Randy Wells' WHIP in 6 starts this year. Anything around 1 is pretty good, especially for a guy like Randy, who was in no way, shape or form part of this year's plans. Randy is a great indicator why wins are a terrible metric for determining a pitcher's worth. That and Jason Marquis, who leads the NL in wins. He will get his win as long as he pitches the way he has been. The big part of that is right there in the WHIP, though. If you are only averaging one baserunner per inning, you are not going to get in very many jams, and your pitch count won't jump on you.
  • The Best: 1.91. That is the bullpen ERA since Neal Cotts was exiled to Iowa on 5/27. This is also over 37.2 innings, including tonight, which means this is no small sample size. The bullpen has really brought it together, minus one big exception, and that has lead to a pretty good road trip so far. Much better than the last one. They are still walking way too many people (25 in those 37.2 innings), but they aren't giving up too many hits. The pitchers leading the charge? Angel Guzman, and Aaron Heilman. Just goes to show you the impact this blog can have on a pitcher. Heilman, since Cotts left (because that's clearly what held Heilman back), has only walked 2 batters in 6.2 innings, and given up 1 run for a 1.35 ERA. This is very encouraging. On the flip side, Marmol has walked 9 in 7 innings (YIKES), which may or may not be related to the blatant overuse Lou is putting him through. Either way, if the other bullpen options keep up this kind of work, we are in good shape.
If you look up, you will see 25 Cardinals plummetting back to Earth. They are starting to realize exactly what kind of team they are, and hopefully Milwaukee will follow suit. Bottom line, this Cubs team is also playing over its head, but there are two major reinforcements, Harden and Ramirez, that will make this team pretty darn good.

Oh, and congrats to Brett Jackson- the Cubs first round draft pick tonight. I put up the list of busts a couple weeks ago, and I am begging whoever is charged with developing this guy: whatever you did with Ryan Harvey, DO NOT do that with Brett Jackson. If you don't, I'm sure thing will work out great.


Posted in: Payroll, Bullpen, Derrek Lee, Randy Wells, Brett Jackson
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Cubs Charity Walk-a-thon comes to Milwaukee
Posted by: partyvancaptain on May 9, 2009 at 8:49 pm

I'm upset. And it has been said that it is good to let it out rather than bottle it all in. So with that,  I bring you my first angry rant of 2009. Hopefully afterwards, I'll go get a big glass of milk and think more rationally about it. But for now...

This bullpen is abysmal. By far it is the 2-ton weight that is holding this team down. Now, to be fair, you can never expect to have 7 all-stars in your bullpen. If you aren't a starter or a closer (or in rare cases an 8th inning guy), you probably aren't good enough. Middle relievers are guys who aren't good enough to start or close. Plain and simple. But right now, the Cubs have middle relievers are not good enough to start, close, or pitch in the majors, AAA, AA, A, rookie-league, little league, or my Church softball league. Tonight's rant will spare only Kevin Gregg (enjoy it this time Robocop, cuz I'm sure I'll hit you sometime soon) and Carlos Marmol.

First, Chad Fox. Kudos to him on coming back again from elbow issues, but the Cubs should have just left it after 2005. But he made a courageous comeback last year, only to stink and get hurt again. Not to be deterred, he tried again this year, stunk even worse and is once again out. You can't blame him for trying to come back. But honestly, what is our friggin' obsession with this guy? He's done. He's been done since 2004. He is a waste of money, a waste of a roster spot and he has been since we first signed him in 2005. Stop, Jim Hendry. Just stop. When you get that tingling urge to call Chad up this offseason, go to the bathroom and induce some vomiting. Maybe that way you can get it all out, and only your toilet will be taking on stink, not the Cubs. Chad Fox would have been a good acquisition in 2001, granted, but so would Rob Nen. Please, please, please be done with Chad Fox.

Neal Cotts has been living off a magical 2005 season for too long now (though so has Contreras, Podsednik and Uribe- man that Sox team had some lucky performances), and he is an absolutely terrible pitcher. He ALWAYS walks the lefty he is sent out there to face. He is honestly a LOWGY. A lousy LOWGY. Explain to me why Scott Eyre didn't deserve to be on this team, but this scrub does. When we got him, Soxfan Spoden laughed at it. He said, "Enjoy his 90-mph straight-as-an-arrow fastball". Boy if he could get it over, I think I would be even more frustrated with the results we get from this guy. Worthless. And he is our only lefty. We are better off with no lefties.

David Patton. Why is he on this team? Why are we wasting a roster spot just to make sure we don't have to give him back to Colorado? Who cares? He had a good Spring, but he hasn't pitched past single-A until now for a reason. I've never seen a team make such a big sacrifice to keep a pitcher with an 8+ ERA on its roster. Maybe he has an upside. Maybe in 2-3 years he will be good. But, here is the key, we are trying to win NOW!!! NOW!!!! It does us no good to keep around a guy like Patton just so he won't go back to Colorado. It boggles the mind that keeping this guy is a priority, at the cost of our already hot-garbage bullpen.

And now I get to lay into one Aaron Heilman. If Cubs fans thought the last two years were major choke jobs, imagine being a Mets fan. They tanked in September two years in a row, and didn't get to sniff the playoffs even though they were by far a good enough team. And want to know one of the reasons they tanked? Their bullpen. And who was the key reliever who led the way in that tankjob? Aaron Heilman. And he is showing us why. He has no command of the strike zone. He used to. He had a good '06 and most of '07. But now, he is unbelievably bad. To throw as many walks as he does, only to follow them with 92-mph fastballs right down the chute to hitters like Ryan Braun. Terrible. He is bad. And he should have been the one DFA'ed, not Vizcaino. And I'm not even a Vizcaino fan.

That brings me to Jim Hendry. He put himself in a situation where he needed to slash payroll, because he gave away bad, backloaded contracts to players who were coming off one good year. So there is where the bullpen implosion began. Kerry Wood? Screw that man, we got Robocop. And so went our all-star closer. Michael Wuertz? He sucked (which by the way, I always thought he got an unfair rep. He wasn't great but he is no Heilman).  Scott Eyre? Well, I suppose that is more on Lou (who I will get to shortly).  Luis Vizcaino? Pffft... not walking enough people. Jim Hendry did not do a good job. I really think he is an overrated GM. He makes some good trades, but they are from teams that are firesaling anyways. And then he will lock the team into bad contracts. ANYONE can throw money at Soriano if they have the money to throw.  But good GMs are wise with their money, even if they have a ton of it. Boston comes to mind here, as much as it pains me to say. I hate Boston.

Finally Lou Piniella. Sir, you were given a ton of crap and told to make dinner with it. That is not an easy task. But you need to be smarter when it comes to using your one reliever worth a hoot: Carlos Marmol. Earlier this week, you used Marmol in back-to-back 3-run games in Houston. I can see you using him in one game, but two 3-run games? It's hard to get too angry, as it is apparent a lot of these guys couldn't hold a 10-run lead, but you've got to give them a chance every once in a while when you DO have some margin for error. Then, when you have a game with no margin for error (such as Friday night), you have Marmol available. I can only assume the overuse of Marmol in Houston was the reason Heilman was out there to cough up the lead. Lou needs to be more judicious in his use of Marmol. It is that simple.

What kills me about this is how good the rest of the team is. The lineup, even without Aramis, is one of the best in baseball. The starting rotation, Ryan Dempster's stupid contract-year regression not withstanding, is very very solid. But, the bullpen has negated that. Almost to the point where we are at .500. They are bad. Therefore, tonight, I am lobbying for the return of these players (because it cannot get any worse): Roberto Novoa, Andy Pratt, Dave Veres, Mel Rojas, Jeff Fassero and Antonio Alfonseca. Get it done, Hendry!


Posted in: Bullpen, Rant, Aaron Heilman, David Patton, Neal Cotts, Chad Fox, Jim Hendry, Lou Piniella, Walks, Suckiness
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Loving This Rivalry
Posted by: partyvancaptain on April 18, 2009 at 5:01 pm

It has come to a point where you almost have to expect Aramis Ramirez to end the game when it is extra innings at Wrigley Field. That man seems to live for those moments, and it is almost as if everyone expected. Pat Hughes didn't even sound as excited as he has in past walk-offs. Heck, even Santo almost seemed calm and collected about it. The bottom line is its another win in what is such a good rivalry. It is even getting the Cubs another Sunday night game on ESPN. Can you say Midwestern bias?

Neal Cotts does exactly what he seems to think his job is, avoid giving up a big hit. So instead he will walk the world. That dude owes Carlos Marmol his first-born for getting out of that.

And an inning later, Carlos Marmol owes Robo Cop that very same first-born for getting out of that jam. I give Marmol a pass though. He's already working a ton for this early in the season. It is inevitible that he will hit troubles. But kudos to Gregg. He will win Wrigleyville over quickly if he can do what he did today.

The walks have to be concerning though. That isn't an earth-shattering observation, but doing some quick, and probably faulty, addition, the bullpen has now pitched 40 innings and thrown 25 walks, including Marshall's relief numbers. That is 5.625 walks per 9 inning, and that is WAY too high. Oddly enough, the one reliever who hasn't thrown a walk is Luis Vizcaino, who apparently is on the Scott Eyre usage plan. Disclaimer: I am not advocating more Luis Vizcaino. That could be even more hazardous to Cubs fans with heart conditions.

Still, you know it is a good day when your best reliever blows the game, but gets picked up by the rest of the bullpen. That is a sign that this team is still going to be aces for 2009. Kudos to Angel Guzman on his first win, 4 years in the making. Next time I'll try to talk about something other than the bullpen.

Posted in: Aramis Ramirez, Neal Cotts, Bullpen, Walks, Cubs-Cardinals Rivalry, Carlos Marmol, Midwestern Bias
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