 | ||
mrschroeder08 partyvancaptain pee_callus25 Tags 2010 Preview 5 Million Dollar Black Hole AAAA Aaron Heilman Aaron Miles Alfonso Soriano Andres Blanco Angel Guzman Aramis Ramirez Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves B.J. Ryan Baltimore Orioles Bob Brenly Bobby Scales Bonehead Booing Boston Red Sox Brett Jackson Bullpen Canadian Concoction Captain Kneejerk Cardinals Carlos Marmol Carlos Silva Carlos Zambrano Chad Fox Chad Tracy Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Indians Cold War Colorado Rockies Contracts Cubs-Cardinals Rivalry Cubs sale Cubs Curtis Granderson Daniel Herrera David Patton Derrek Lee Designated Hitter Detroit Tigers Disabled list Dominance ERA+ ERROR Esmailin Caridad ESPN Sucks Eternal frustration Eternal Optimism Farewell Farney Florida Marlins Free Agency Future Gatorade Geovanny Soto Geovany Soto Gerald Perry Grades Houston Astros I-Cubs Injuries Jake Fox Jason Marquis Jason Waddell Jeff Gray Jeff Samardzija Jim Hendry Jim Wolf Joey Gathright John Grabow Jose Ascanio Kansas City Royals Kerry Wood Kevin Gregg Kevin Hart Kevin Millar Koyie Hill LaTroy Hawkins Legendary Lineup Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers Lou Piniella Luis Vizcaino Man Crush Mark DeRosa Marlon Byrd Micah Hoffpauir Middle Infield Midwestern Bias Milton Bradley Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins Minor Leagues MLB 2K9 Neal Cotts New York Mets New York Yankees Oakland Athletics October Offseason Opening Day OPS+ Payroll Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates Playoffs Randy Wells Rant Rich Harden Ryan Dempster Ryan Freel Ryan Theriot Sam Fuld Sam Zell Sammy Sosa San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Sandy Alderson Sean Marshall Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Steroids Strikeouts Suckiness Tampa Bay Rays TBS Texas Rangers Tom Gorzelanny Tom Ricketts Toronto Blue Jays Trade Tribune Company Tyler Colvin Von Joshua Waivers Walks Washington Nationals WTF Xavier Nady RSS Feed So there you have it. I had to kick up the pace at the end. I should note that these predictions were based on a very precise and accurate mathematical formula. If one injury, trade or waiver move is made, it will throw off all the calculations and the predictions become null and void. But seriously, I think we are in for a fun season, even if the Cubs struggle again. I am looking forward to seeing if Tyler Colvin can be a productive major leaguer, if Starlin Castro makes his long awaited debut, if Soriano, Soto and Fontenot can turn back the calendar to 2008, if Carlos Marmol can find the strike zone and if Carlos Silva can pitch like a major leaguer. Either way, it will be fun to watch. And you can get your half-baked Cubs thoughts all season long here at Blue Ivy. First: credit to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for statistical info and mlb.com for depth chart and pitching rotation information. Second: here is a full recap of my predictions. I will add a bonus playoff prediction section to this, even though the playoffs are really a crapshoot. Enjoy, and I will be back to blog on opening day! AL West 1.) Seattle 2.) L.A. Angels 3.) Texas 4.) Oakland AL Central 1.) Chi. White Sox 2.) Minnesota 3.) Detroit 4.) Kansas City 5.) Cleveland AL East 1.) Boston 2.) N.Y. Yankees (*AL Wild Card) 3.) Tampa Bay 4.) Baltimore 5.) Toronto NL West 1.) Colorado 2.) L.A. Dodgers 3.) Arizona 4.) San Francisco 5.) San Diego NL Central 1.) St. Louis 2.) Chi. Cubs 3.) Cincinnati 4.) Milwaukee 5.) Houston 6.) Pittsburgh NL East 1.) Philadelphia 2.) Atlanta (*NL Wild Card) 3.) N.Y. Mets 4.) Florida 5.) Washington Division Series St. Louis over Atlanta Philadelphia over Colorado Seattle over New York Boston over Chicago League Championship Series Philadelphia over St. Louis Boston over Seattle World Series Philadelphia over Boston Posted in: 2010 Preview Because I have discussed most of the moves already, here is a stripped down Blue Ivy preview of the final team: the Cubs. Chicago Cubs 2009 Record: 83-78 (2nd, NL Central) Key Additions: Marlon Byrd (OF), Carlos Silva (SP), Xavier Nady (OF), Chad Tracy (3B/1B) Key Losses: Milton Bradley (OF), Rich Harden (SP), Kevin Gregg (RP), Aaron Heilman (RP), Reed Johnson (OF), Aaron Miles (INF), Andres Blanco (INF), Neal Cotts (RP), Chad Fox (RP) BIBGLBOOPSARG(tm) SS Ryan Theriot RF Kosuke Fukudome 1B Derrek Lee 3B Aramis Ramirez CF Marlon Byrd LF Alfonso Soriano 2B Mike Fontenot C Geovany Soto P Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny Closer: Carlos Marmol Predicted Finish: Second place in the NL Central. I expect some bounce back from Soriano and Soto, and when Ted Lilly comes back, the rotation is pretty darn good. They don't have anything to touch the Cardinals top four players, but they have more depth. The keys are obviously to avoid injury and have players return to 2008 form. I think they will at least get some of that to happen. Also, Starlin Castro is a real possibility to be a mid-season call-up, and he could be the spark to have this team make a run at the postseason. Posted in: 2010 Preview, Chicago Cubs One more to go, and then we will get to the Cubs. Let's get right to it. Washington Nationals 2009 Record: 59-103 (5th, NL East) Key Additions: Matt Capps (RP), Chien-Ming Wang (SP), Adam Kennedy (INF), Ivan Rodriguez (C), Jason Marquis (SP), Brian Bruney (RP), Eric Bruntlett (INF), Eddie Guardado (RP), Ryan Speier (RP), Doug Slaten (RP) Key Losses: Elijah Dukes (OF), Dmitri Young (1B), Austin Kearns (OF), Ron Villone (RP), Josh Bard (C) Summary: They made a lot of small moves this offseason, but none of them are game changers. Matt Capps might be the closest, but a closer cannot turn around the fortunes of a franchise. Ryan Zimmerman has established himself as an elite third baseman, and Adam Dunn provides amazing amounts of power. Nyjer Morgan is decent as a leadoff hitter, and Josh Willingham is decent. My goodness, Jason Marquis is the ace? He is a decent pitcher, but if he is your best starter, then you have issues. Stephen Stasburg needs to come pretty fast. Even with him, there is huge room for improvement. Cubs Connection: So Matt Capps was the best move the Nationals made this offseason. Though the Cubs almost snatched him away. This could be more of a detriment to the Cubs than it is an asset to the Nationals. The Nationals may not have many games to be saved, and the Cubs could be in trouble with three rookies in the bullpen and a shaky closer like Marmol. Time will tell, but this move by the Nationals could bite the Cubs this year. BIBGLBOOPSARG(tm) CF Nyjer Morgan RF Willie Harris 3B Ryan Zimmerman 1B Adam Dunn LF Josh Willingham 2B Adam Kennedy C Ivan Rodriguez SS Ian Desmond P Jason Marquis, John Lannan, Chien-Ming Wang, J.D. Martin, Garrett Mock Closer: Matt Capps Predicted Finish: Fifth place in the NL East. They acquired a lot of players, but it is about quality, not quantity. The rotation is weak, the lineup has holes. They may have a decent back end of the bullpen, but even Matt Capps could collapse again. Right now, it is just a waiting game to see if Stephen Strasburg. Posted in: 2010 Preview, Washington Nationals There is one team left in Canada, and they did not exactly represent the maple leaf well last season. Can they rebound? Well, let's just say trading away one of the best pitchers in the game does not help. Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Record: 75-87 (4th, AL East) Key Additions: Alex Gonzalez (SS), John Buck (C), Kevin Gregg (RP), Brandon Morrow (SP), Dana Eveland (SP), Jose Molina (C), Jeremy Reed (OF), Shawn Hill (SP), Merkin Valdez (RP) Key Losses: Roy Halladay (SP), Marco Scutaro (SS), Rod Barajas (C), Brandon League (RP), Kevin Millar (1B), Joe Inglett (INF) Summary: Before Tampa had their meteoric rise in 2008, Toronto was considered the most likely to challenge the dominance of New York and Boston. Now, they are pretty far from that. They have one recognizable face (and that is because he has a contract worse than Soriano's), Vernon Wells, but the best players here are Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. It will be interesting to see if the players around them can step up. The rotation is full of pitchers that no one has heard of. Shaun Marcum is the de facto ace, and he has not even pitched since 2008. In a division like the AL East, that is a recipe for disaster. Cubs Connection: So Kevin Gregg did not last long in Chicago. After losing the closing job, the writing was on the wall. As noted last year in this blog, his home run numbers were amazingly off from his career average. The question is what he can do this season in a situation that will probably provide less pressure. According to mlb.com, he does not have the closer's job (Jason Frasor does), but he will figure prominently in this bullpen. BIBGLBOOPSARG(tm) RF Jose Bautista 2B Aaron Hill CF Vernon Wells DH Adam Lind 1B Lyle Overbay 3B Edwin Encarnacion LF Travis Snider C John Buck SS Alex Gonzalez P Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Mike Rzepczynski, Brian Tallet Closer: Jason Frasor Predicted Finish: Fifth in the AL East. There are two groups in this division. One of them is the contenders: the Red Sox, the Yankees and the Rays. The other group is the rebuilders: the Orioles and the Jays. The Orioles I feel are further a long at this point, which puts them ahead of Toronto. But hey, at least they have the hockey gold medal. Posted in: 2010 Preview, Toronto Blue Jays They brought us Marlon Byrd. They brought us Rudy Jaramillo. Oh, and they brought us Milton Bradley. Ladies and gentlemen, it's the Texas Rangers 2009 Record: 87-75 (2nd, AL West) Key Additions: Vladimir Guerrero (DH/OF), Rich Harden (SP), Darren Oliver (RP), Endy Chavez (OF), Andres Blanco (INF), Ryan Garko (1B), Chris Ray (RP), Matt Treanor (C) Key Losses: Kevin Millwood (SP), Marlon Byrd (OF), Hank Blalock (1B/3B), Andruw Jones (OF), Ivan Rodriguez (C), Omar Vizquel (INF), Eddie Guardado (RP) Summary: What a lineup this team has. Josh Hamilton had a rough year last year, but it is pretty clear he is talented and can rebound. Even without him the Rangers still have Elvis Andrus, Michael Young, Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, Ian Kinsler and newcomer Vladimir Guerrero. That is a nice group of hitters right there. The staff is weak. Stuff-wise, Rich Harden is their best pitcher, but we all know how reliable he really is. Scott Feldman had a good year, but was that just a mirage? It will also be interesting to see if C.J. Wilson can jump into the rotation this year. To me, the rotation with two converted relievers, a journeyman (Colby Lewis) and a youngster with a career ERA above 5 (Matt Harrison) just does not inspire confidence. That could really hurt them this year. Cubs Connection: This offseason and this spring, the Cubs and Rangers had quite a few acquisitions with ties to each other. The Cubs got former Rangers Marlon Byrd and Rudy Jaramillo. The Rangers got former Cubs Rich Harden and Andres Blanco. I think that speaks really well to where these teams are at. The Cubs want more offensive pop, and the Rangers need more pitching and defense. So which of these teams got the better duo? A healthy Rich Harden means the Rangers did. But since that won't happen, I'll be a homer and say the Cubs did. BIBGLBOOPSARG(tm) CF Julio Borbon 3B Michael Young LF Josh Hamilton DH Vladimir Guerrero 2B Ian Kinsler RF Nelson Cruz 1B Chris Davis C Jarrod Saltalamacchia SS Elvis Andrus P Scott Feldman, Rich Harden, C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison Closer: Frank Francisco Predicted Finish: Third place in the AL West. I do not like the rotation here, even though I like the lineup. Because Seattle and Los Angeles have better rotations, I give them the nod. What will be interesting to see is if Feldman is for real, or if Wilson can convert to a starter successfully, or if Rich Harden can actually stay healthy. If two of those three things happen, we will see the Rangers in contention until the end. Posted in: 2010 Preview, Texas Rangers If one team may be getting the worst of the unbalanced AL East, it could be Tampa. Why? They have the talent to win in any other division, but they are stuck with two high-payroll, high-caliber teams. Life is just not fair. Tampa Bay Rays 2009 Record: 84-78 (3rd, AL East) Key Additions: Rafael Soriano (RP), Kelly Shoppach (C), Hank Blalock (1B/3B), Joaquin Benoit (RP) Key Losses: Akinori Iwamura (2B), Troy Percival (RP), Greg Zaun (C), Brian Shouse (RP), Russ Springer (RP), Chad Bradford (RP), Gabe Gross (OF), Jason Isringhausen (RP) Summary: Tampa Bay is the midst of a period where they are benefiting from all their toil from 1998-2007. They have had numerous opportunities to draft and develop talent, and they have done so. The lineup is among the best in baseball with Longoria, Pena, Crawford and Zobrist. If B.J. Upton rebounds, and Jason Bartlett continues his 2009 form, this lineup is the best in the AL East. That is saying something. With Scott Kazmir gone, James Shields and Matt Garza head the rotation. Jeff Niemann had a solid rookie year, and is a solid middle of the rotation starter. It is now time to see if David Price can live up to his top pick potential. Rafael Soriano was a good acquisition to shore up the bullpen. Cubs Connection: The big rumor last offseason was Bradley for Burrell. Tampa Bay balked at this deal, and that is saying something. Why? Pat Burrell was terrible in 2009, and Tampa wanted out from under his contract. The only possible out they had was a Bradley trade, and they said no. Now they are hoping Pat the bat can rebound and be a decent DH. Honestly, the lineup is good enough that his contributions are really just gravy. From Tampa's end though, it would be good to see Burrell live up to that contract. BIBGLBOOPSARG(tm) LF Carl Crawford SS Jason Bartlett 3B Evan Longoria 1B Carlos Pena CF B.J. Upton 2B Ben Zobrist DH Pat Burrell RF Matt Joyce C Dioner Navarro P James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price, Wade Davis Closer: Rafael Soriano Predicted Finish: Third place in the AL East. Boston and New York are just too strong, especially in the rotation. I think that is where Tampa falls short in this division. Do not be surprised if they make some noise again this year though. The real question comes in a few years, when they need to dish out money for these young talents. That could give them a good chance at being real contenders in a super tough division. Posted in: 2010 Preview, Tampa Bay Rays They were the answer to the $20 million question this offseason. Where would Milton land? Who would be the next team to take on the human headache? Well it turns out it was the same team that was at the center of a lot of action this preseason, and it is the team of the northwest. Seattle Mariners 2009 Record: 85-77 (3rd, AL West) Key Additions: Cliff Lee (SP), Chone Figgins (INF), Milton Bradley (OF), Casey Kotchman (1B), Eric Byrnes (OF), Brandon League (RP), Josh Bard (C) Key Losses: Russell Branyan (1B), Adrian Beltre (3B), Kenji Johjima (C), Carlos Silva (SP), Brandon Morrow (RP), Bill Hall (INF), Endy Chavez (OF) Summary: Defense and pitching. That is all you are hearing about this team, but offensively, this team is not too bad. Ichiro and Chone Figgins are on base machines. Bradley is just one year removed from an AL OPS title. Jose Lopez quietly had a 20+ home run season in 2009. Franklin Gutierrez had almost 20 home runs in while playing center field last year. The offense is better than I think people give it credit for. Meanwhile the pitching is the best in the division. Hernandez and Lee are 1 and 1A in this rotation. Behind them though are some decent pitchers. Ryan Rowland-Smith quietly had a decent 2009, and Ian Snell could be decent for a #4. The real question is this: can David Aardsma continue to be a good closer? We will find out. Cubs Connection: Man, I have to talk about Milton Bradley. He is such a talented player, and he had shown it in 2008. I talked ad nauseum about why the Cubs mishandled his situation, but I think that Seattle could be a better place for him. The expectations are not as high, and the fanbase is not carrying 100+ years of frustration. Of course, Milton has yet to leave on good terms anywhere he has played (including Texas), and there really is no reason to think he will turn over a new leaf now. I will say this, if he cannot shut up and play to his ability here, he will never be able to do it. BIBGLBOOPSARG(tm) RF Ichiro Suzuki 2B Chone Figgins LF Milton Bradley DH Ken Griffey, Jr. 3B Jose Lopez 1B Casey Kotchman CF Franklin Gutierrez C Rob Johnson SS Jack Wilson P Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell, Doug Fister Closer: David Aardsma Predicted Finish: First place in the AL West. They are a trendy pick, and I am following on that trend. They have accomplished their goal of assembling the best defensive team in baseball, and they have a good stable of arms. I think their offense is underrated, and it will be good enough to have them overtake the Angels this season. Posted in: 2010 Preview, Seattle Mariners Living out near San Francisco, I hear a lot of stuff about the Giants. There is some guarded optimism that this team can continue the climb it began last season. Do I agree with this optimism? San Francisco Giants 2009 Record: 88-74 (3rd, NL West) Key Additions: Mark DeRosa (OF/INF), Aubrey Huff (1B), Todd Wellemeyer (SP), Guillermo Mota (RP), Santiago Casilla (RP) Key Losses: Brad Penny (SP), Randy Winn (OF), Ryan Garko (1B), Rich Aurilia (INF), Randy Johnson (SP), Bob Howry (RP), Justin Miller (RP) Summary: Pitching, pitching and more pitching. That is the name of the game here as Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain make a very formidable one-two punch. You add in Jonathan Sanchez, who could have a good year and you have a pitching juggernaut. The problem? The Giants lineup consists of Pablo Sandoval and a bunch of bats that are either average, aging or unproven. Attempts to improve the lineup included signing Aubrey Huff and former Cubs' Jesus Mark DeRosa. I think that is still far from enough against some of the young, tough lineups out West. Buster Posey could help out a lot there if he can make it up from AAA. That is debatable, but the kid could be really good in a year or so. Cubs Connection: You think I am going to talk about Mark DeRosa here, right? Wrong! Tim Lincecum was drafted by the Cubs once! Yep, in 2003. Of course he decided not to sign and went to college. He was also later drafted by Cleveland and decided not to sign. San Francisco was the lucky team to finally sign him. You cannot get angry at the Cubs because come on? They would have had to overpay for a small kid with a funky delivery. Who could have guessed it would work? BIBGLBOOPSARG(tm) CF Aaron Rowand 2B Freddy Sanchez 3B Pablo Sandoval 1B Aubrey Huff LF Mark DeRosa C Bengie Molina SS Edgar Renteria RF Nate Schierholtz P Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez, Todd Wellemeyer Closer: Brian Wilson Predicted Finish: Fourth place in the NL West. I started out high on this team. Then I started cooling. As we approach opening day, I am cold on them. Why? Tim Lincecum's velocity has been dropping, and if that is the case, so could his effectiveness. Zito is a shell of his former self. The lineup is still bad. I am actually (just as of recently) thinking Arizona can beat them out. The Giants really need to find out how to get this lineup going again. And no, Barry Bonds will not be walking through that door. Posted in: 2010 Preview, San Francisco Giants For my money, there is no division as competitive as the NL West from top to bottom. Every other division has had a perpetual winner (Angels, Phillies, Red Sox/Yankees) or a perpetual basement dweller (Pirates, Royals, Nationals). The NL West has seen every team in contention at least once in the last 3 years. Three teams have made the postseason, with the other two coming very close. However, if there is one team that really looks to be out of the race this seaon, it is this team. San Diego Padres 2009 Record: 75-87 (4th, NL West) Key Additions: Jon Garland (SP), Yorvit Torrealba (C), Jerry Hairston, Jr. (INF/OF), Matt Stairs (1B/OF), Chris Denorfia (OF) Key Losses: Brian Giles (OF), Henry Blanco (C), Mike Eckstrom (RP) Summary: What a difference a few years and a huge cut to payroll can make. This team was so good that the Cubs could not beat them even once in 2006. They were a questionable call away from making the playoffs again in 2007. And now they look to be longshots to be competitive in the NL West. Adrian Gonzalez is the best player that gets no press, and it is highly doubtful he remains here. There is a lot of young talent (Blanks, Headley, Cabrera, Latos and Correia), but it is pretty green. They are a couple of years away from this core being formidable. For now, it will probably not be a great season. Cubs Connection: I'll keep this one brief, as it is yet another former Cubs one, but Jon Garland was a former Cubs farmhand. And then he was traded for Matt Karchner. Karchner is now long out of baseball, and Garland is the ace of this staff. Of course with this staff, that is not saying too much. BIBGLBOOPSARG(tm) CF Tony Gwynn, Jr. 2B David Eckstein 1B Adrian Gonzalez 3B Chase Headley LF Kyle Blanks RF Will Venable C Nick Hundley SS Everth Cabrera P Jon Garland, Chris Young, Kevin Correia, Mat Latos, Clayton Richard Closer: Heath Bell Predicted Finish: Fifth place in the NL West. I see a chance for the other teams in this division to contend. They all have good pitching, and at least three of those four have good lineups. San Diego really does not have anything to hang its hat on except A-Gon, who could be gone by August. Those things said, it is probably a cellar finish here. Hopefully for San Diego, that payroll size can increase soon. Posted in: 2010 Preview, San Diego Padres Guess which team is being predicted as a HEAVY favorite to win the NL Central again. Yep, it's the St. Louis Cardinals 2009 Record: 91-71 (1st, NL Central) Key Additions: Felipe Lopez (2B), Brad Penny (SP), Rich Hill (SP) Key Losses: Mark DeRosa (INF/OF), John Smoltz (SP), Rick Ankiel (OF), Joel Pineiro (SP), Todd Wellemeyer (SP/RP), Julio Lugo (INF), Troy Glaus (3B/1B), Khalil Greene (SS), Brad Thompson (RP) Summary: Another year, another good team in St. Louis. When you have the best player in baseball, Albert Pujols, it is pretty easy to build around him. When you have another all star like Matt Holliday than it is just unfair. When you add two Cy Young candidates in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, you get a team that EVERYONE expects to win the division. The Cardinals have four amazing talents there and have a bevy of role players. Ludwick and Molina are good, and Colby Rasums could take another step towards stardom this season. Brad Penny is a prime candidate to return to all-star form under Dave Duncan. They are brimming with talent, even if their bullpen is shaky. Cubs Connection: The rivalry. With all the press staying out east, the rivalry has gotten pretty good in the last few years. The Cubs and Cardinals have combined to win (or tie for) the last 10 NL Central titles. Guess which team has 7 of the 10. This year, there is a good chance we will have 11 straight between these two, and there is a good chance the Cardinals will be the ones to do it again. BIBGLBOOPSARG(tm) 2B Skip Schumaker SS Brendan Ryan 1B Albert Pujols LF Matt Holliday RF Ryan Ludwick CF Colby Rasmus C Yadier Molina P Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Brad Penny, Kyle Lohse, Jaime Garcia 3B David Freese (LaRussian lineup) Closer: Ryan Franklin Predicted Finish: First place in the NL Central. I don't think this is as much of a slam dunk as most do. You cannot bet against all the talent this team has. What you can question though is the health. Carpenter has dealt with injuries a lot lately, and pitchers' arms do not all of a sudden become sturdy. No, they deteriorate over time. And the one thing about this team is it is not deep. One injury to the big four, and suddenly they are on the level of the Cubs, Brewers and Reds. Two injuries, and it could be ugly. With that said, you have to assume they will be healthy, and if so, it is the Cardinals to win again this year. Posted in: 2010 Preview, St. Louis Cardinals | ||